Calendar-year inflation forecasts from Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants typically start near 2% and then are revised in response to incoming data. Before the pandemic when actual ...

Keeping a stable and moderate level of inflation is important for a healthy economy. Therefore, there is value in understanding not only how overall inflation is evolving but what is driving it.

We document key stylized facts about the time-series trends and cross-sectional distributions of AI pricing and study its implications for firm performance, both on average and conditional on monetary ...

Fifteen months of new data since May 2023 continue to track closely along the path of a fitted nonlinear Phillips curve. This confirms earlier work that portrays the nonlinear empirical relationship ...

The economy has significantly improved from just two years ago. Inflation has fallen substantially, and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable path. A soft landing is achievable, and the ...

Standard asset pricing models reconcile high equity premia with smooth risk-free rates by inducing an inverse functional relationship between the mean and the variance of the stochastic discount ...

I’m delighted, and it’s good to see everybody in the audience. Thank you for having me. Well, I think the jobs market data being revised and going back and forth is just a good lesson of why you can’t ...

The economy has significantly improved from just two years ago. Inflation has fallen substantially, and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable path. A soft landing is achievable, and the ...

As a community-engaged bank, the SF Fed seeks out real-time information on economic conditions by engaging with and learning from businesses, community organizations, and local leaders. These ...

CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services updates data on how much different types of goods and services contribute to changes in consumer price index (CPI) inflation. This tool is intended ...

Although homeownership is commonly portrayed as a single household living in a detached residential structure, the landscape of homeownership in the United States offers a diverse array of ...

Small businesses play an important role in the American economy, both as employers, and as drivers of economic activity in local communities. In recent years, many small business owners have had to ...